Interpolation vs Extrapolation

ChatGPT is almost four years old, and its maker says its models now reach more than a billion people. The four largest American cloud companies plan to spend roughly $700 billion this year on the infrastructure behind systems like it. On the question of whether AI is revolutionary, the bulls and the bears stopped arguing a while ago.

So here are a few uncomfortable observations, as of August 2026: no drug designed by AI has been approved by any major regulator. AI has not discovered any new laws of physics. We handed a machine nearly the sum of all written human knowledge, and the mysteries of the universe are sitting exactly where we left them in November 2022.